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http://dspace.mediu.edu.my:8181/xmlui/handle/10419/19702| Title: | Quantifying risk and uncertainty in macroeconomic forecasts |
| Keywords: | E37 C53 C14 ddc:330 Macroeconomic forecasts stochastic forecast intervals risk uncertainty asymmetrically weighted normal distribution asymmetric bootstrap Konjunkturprognose Prognoseverfahren Risiko Bootstrap-Verfahren Theorie Deutschland |
| Issue Date: | 16-Oct-2013 |
| Description: | This paper discusses methods to quantify risk and uncertainty in macroeconomic forecasts. Both, parametric and non-parametric procedures are developed. The former are based on a class of asymmetrically weighted normal distributions whereas the latter employ asymmetric bootstrap simulations. Both procedures are closely related. The bootstrap is applied to the structural macroeconometric model of the Bundesbank for Germany. Forecast intervals that integrate judgement on risk and uncertainty are obtained. |
| URI: | http://koha.mediu.edu.my:8181/xmlui/handle/10419/19702 |
| Other Identifiers: | http://hdl.handle.net/10419/19702 ppn:546267807 RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:6341 |
| Appears in Collections: | EconStor |
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