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http://dspace.mediu.edu.my:8181/xmlui/handle/10419/19796| Title: | Robust Lessons about Practical Early Warning Systems |
| Keywords: | F31 F33 F37 ddc:330 early warning system currency crises emerging markets |
| Issue Date: | 16-Oct-2013 |
| Publisher: | |
| Description: | Early warning systems (EWSs) are subject to restrictions that apply to exchange rates in general: fundamentals matter but their influence is small and unstable. Keeping this in mind, five lessons emerge : First, EWSs have robust forecasting power and thus help policy-makers to prevent crises. Second, among competing crisis definitions there is one which is most practical. Third, take a logit model to condense information from various fundamental variables. Fourth, add a regional contagion dummy to the standard set of variables. Fifth, one may be tempted to address instability over time and countries by taking shorter samples and regional EWSs. |
| URI: | http://koha.mediu.edu.my:8181/xmlui/handle/10419/19796 |
| Other Identifiers: | http://hdl.handle.net/10419/19796 ppn:500741735 RePEc:zbw:gdec05:3476 |
| Appears in Collections: | EconStor |
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