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http://dspace.mediu.edu.my:8181/xmlui/handle/10419/20250| Title: | Analytical Prediction of Transitions Probabilities in the Conditional Logit Model |
| Keywords: | J22 C15 C35 ddc:330 conditional logit model logistic distributions behavioral microsimulation social insurance reform Logit-Modell Simulation Prognoseverfahren Sozialreform Arbeitsangebot Theorie Deutschland |
| Issue Date: | 16-Oct-2013 |
| Publisher: | |
| Description: | The paper derives analytical transitions probabilities following an exogenous shock to the deterministic component in the conditional logit model. The solution draws on the postestimation distribution of the models stochastic component, identified on the basis of a direct utility maximization interpretation of agents revealed choice. Computational experiments confirm that analytical prediction of transitions probabilities might perform substantially better than the established calibration method with few repetitions. However, results obtained in an empirical application studying labor supply responses to social insurance reform in Germany suggest that previous calibration-based results accurately indicate the direction of incentive effects, while underpredicting small transitions frequencies. |
| URI: | http://koha.mediu.edu.my:8181/xmlui/handle/10419/20250 |
| Other Identifiers: | http://hdl.handle.net/10419/20250 ppn:378770780 |
| Appears in Collections: | EconStor |
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