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Inflation Targeting Is a Success, So Far: 100 Years of Evidence from Swedish Wage Contracts

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dc.creator Fregert, Klas
dc.creator Jonung, Lars
dc.date 2008
dc.date.accessioned 2013-10-16T06:57:52Z
dc.date.available 2013-10-16T06:57:52Z
dc.date.issued 2013-10-16
dc.identifier http://hdl.handle.net/10419/17996
dc.identifier ppn:569559936
dc.identifier RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:7335
dc.identifier.uri http://koha.mediu.edu.my:8181/xmlui/handle/10419/17996
dc.description Inflation targeting was adopted by several countries, including Sweden, in the 1990s. We evaluate the Swedish inflation targeting regime since 1995 using a novel approach based on a unique data set on the characteristics of collective wage agreements between 1908 and 2008. First, we establish that the length of wage contracts decreases in response to an increase in ?macroeconomic uncertainty? across policy regimes. Second, using contract length as the assessment criteria for regime performance, we find that the inflation targeting regime of 1995?2008 stands out as an exceptionally stable policy regime as judged by the willingness of wage contract-makers to repeatedly commit to three-year non-indexed wage agreements. In addition, inflation targeting gained instant credibility in the sense that the labor market organizations entered long-term wage agreements at the same time as this new regime was announced. Inflation targeting has thus reduced macroeconomic uncertainty compared to previous regimes adopted in Sweden during the 20th century. Our approach to evaluate inflation targeting is different from the traditional one commonly based on cross-section samples comparing inflation outcomes. Instead we focus on the actual decisions of private-sector wage setters under different monetary regimes. Judging from their behavior across a century of observations, inflation targeting in Sweden is a success – at least so far.
dc.language eng
dc.publisher Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Kiel
dc.relation Economics Discussion Papers / Institut für Weltwirtschaft 2008-24
dc.rights http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.0/de/deed.en
dc.subject E42
dc.subject E30
dc.subject E65
dc.subject ddc:330
dc.subject Inflation targeting
dc.subject policy regime
dc.subject contract length
dc.subject wage indexation
dc.subject Lucas critique
dc.subject Sweden
dc.subject credibility
dc.subject Inflation Targeting
dc.subject Wirtschaftspolitische Wirkungsanalyse
dc.subject Lohnbildung
dc.subject Tarifpolitik
dc.subject Lohnindexierung
dc.subject Schweden
dc.title Inflation Targeting Is a Success, So Far: 100 Years of Evidence from Swedish Wage Contracts
dc.type doc-type:workingPaper
dc.coverage 1995-2008
dc.coverage 1908-2008


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