أعرض تسجيلة المادة بشكل مبسط

dc.creator Slacalek, Jiri
dc.date 2004
dc.date.accessioned 2013-10-16T06:59:27Z
dc.date.available 2013-10-16T06:59:27Z
dc.date.issued 2013-10-16
dc.identifier http://hdl.handle.net/10419/18313
dc.identifier ppn:47631979X
dc.identifier.uri http://koha.mediu.edu.my:8181/xmlui/handle/10419/18313
dc.description I propose an econometric model that improves upon existing methods of estimating the natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) by using information contained in the trend of productivity growth. My approach enhances the recently proposed model of Staiger, Stock and Watson (1997) in several respects. Statistically speaking, the method substantially shrinks the width of the 95% confidence interval, performs better in an out-of-sample inflation forecasting exercise, and is more robust to alternative statistical assumptions. In economic terms, the productivity-augmented model generates a more realistic time profile of the NAIRU, and implies estimates of the Phillips curve slope and the sacrifice ratio that are more in line with conventional wisdom. I also test whether the natural rate is correlated with the level or with the change of the productivity growth trend. I find support for the ?level? hypothesis in both the US and international data.
dc.language eng
dc.publisher Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW) Berlin
dc.relation DIW-Diskussionspapiere 461
dc.rights http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen
dc.subject C22
dc.subject E50
dc.subject E31
dc.subject ddc:330
dc.subject natural rate of unemployment
dc.subject productivity
dc.subject Phillips curve
dc.subject timevarying parameters
dc.subject Kalman filter
dc.title Productivity and the Natural Rate of Unemployment
dc.type doc-type:workingPaper


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أعرض تسجيلة المادة بشكل مبسط