أعرض تسجيلة المادة بشكل مبسط

dc.creator Schumacher, Christian
dc.date 2000
dc.date.accessioned 2013-10-16T07:04:56Z
dc.date.available 2013-10-16T07:04:56Z
dc.date.issued 2013-10-16
dc.identifier http://hdl.handle.net/10419/19442
dc.identifier ppn:322642450
dc.identifier RePEc:zbw:hwwadp:26245
dc.identifier.uri http://koha.mediu.edu.my:8181/xmlui/handle/10419/19442
dc.description This paper estimates and forecasts trend output and output gaps for the Euro area. In the monetary strategy of the European Central Bank (ECB), trend output is used to forecast a reference value for money. For this purpose, trend output must be forecasted as well. In this paper, a permanent-transitory decomposition (PT) based on cointegration restrictions gives an estimate of trend output in the Euro area. Ex-ante forecasts of trend output are generated and to get an impression of the forecast uncertainty, bootstrap simulation is employed to construct prediction intervals that take into consideration estimation uncertainty. The empirical uncertainty around trend output is relatively smaller than the uncertainty of the output gap. The absolute uncertainty of both indicators is quite large and questions their usefulness for monetary policy. When relying on such indicators monetary authorities should clarify this uncertainty.
dc.language eng
dc.publisher
dc.relation HWWA Discussion Paper 109
dc.rights http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen
dc.subject ddc:330
dc.subject Konjunkturprognose
dc.subject Prognoseverfahren
dc.subject Zeitreihenanalyse
dc.subject Schätzung
dc.subject Theorie
dc.subject EU-Staaten
dc.title Forecasting trend output in the Euro area
dc.type doc-type:workingPaper


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أعرض تسجيلة المادة بشكل مبسط