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Do Consumer Confidence Indexes Help Forecast Consumer Spending in Real Time?

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dc.creator Croushore, Dean
dc.date 2004
dc.date.accessioned 2013-10-16T07:05:15Z
dc.date.available 2013-10-16T07:05:15Z
dc.date.issued 2013-10-16
dc.identifier http://hdl.handle.net/10419/19494
dc.identifier ppn:470320052
dc.identifier RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:2293
dc.identifier.uri http://koha.mediu.edu.my:8181/xmlui/handle/10419/19494
dc.description Could a researcher or policy analyst use data reported from surveys of consumer confidence to improve forecasts of consumer spending? This issue has been examined in the literature previously, which reached the conclusion that consumer confidence helped improve the forecasts slightly. But that research was based on final, revised data and thus did not use the data that would have been available to forecasters in real time. This paper remedies that shortcoming, using the Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists to analyze the quality of forecasts made with indexes of consumer confidence. The main finding is that the indexes of consumer confidence are not of significant value in forecasting consumer spending. In fact, in some cases, they make the forecasts significantly worse.
dc.language eng
dc.publisher
dc.relation Discussion paper Series 1 / Volkswirtschaftliches Forschungszentrum der Deutschen Bundesbank 2004,27
dc.rights http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen
dc.subject E27
dc.subject ddc:330
dc.subject Konsumklima
dc.subject Gesamtwirtschaftlicher Konsum
dc.subject Prognoseverfahren
dc.subject Schätzung
dc.subject Theorie
dc.subject Vereinigte Staaten
dc.title Do Consumer Confidence Indexes Help Forecast Consumer Spending in Real Time?
dc.type doc-type:workingPaper


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