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Bayesian inference for duration data with unobserved and unknown heterogeneity : Monte Carlo evidence and an application

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dc.creator Paserman, Marco Daniele
dc.date 2004
dc.date.accessioned 2013-10-16T07:09:26Z
dc.date.available 2013-10-16T07:09:26Z
dc.date.issued 2013-10-16
dc.identifier http://hdl.handle.net/10419/20231
dc.identifier ppn:378234463
dc.identifier.uri http://koha.mediu.edu.my:8181/xmlui/handle/10419/20231
dc.description This paper describes a semiparametric Bayesian method for analyzing duration data. The proposed estimator specifies a complete functional form for duration spells, but allows flexibility by introducing an individual heterogeneity term, which follows a Dirichlet mixture distribution. I show how to obtain predictive distributions for duration data that correctly account for the uncertainty present in the model. I also directly compare the performance of the proposed estimator with Heckman and Singer's (1984) Non Parametric Maximum Likelihood Estimator (NPMLE). The methodology is applied to the analysis of youth unemployment spells. Compared to the NPMLE, the proposed estimator reflects more accurately the uncertainty surrounding the heterogeneity distribution.
dc.language eng
dc.relation IZA Discussion paper series 996
dc.rights http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen
dc.subject C41
dc.subject C11
dc.subject ddc:330
dc.subject duration data
dc.subject Dirichlet process
dc.subject Bayesian inference
dc.subject Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation
dc.subject Statistische Bestandsanalyse
dc.subject Nichtparametrisches Verfahren
dc.subject Bayes-Statistik
dc.subject Maximum-Likelihood-Methode
dc.subject Schätzung
dc.subject Jugendarbeitslosigkeit
dc.subject Theorie
dc.subject Vereinigte Staaten
dc.title Bayesian inference for duration data with unobserved and unknown heterogeneity : Monte Carlo evidence and an application
dc.type doc-type:workingPaper


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