المستودع الأكاديمي جامعة المدينة

Rational forecasts or social opinion dynamics? Identification of interaction effects in a business climate survey

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dc.creator Lux, Thomas
dc.date 2008
dc.date.accessioned 2013-10-16T06:08:47Z
dc.date.available 2013-10-16T06:08:47Z
dc.date.issued 2013-10-16
dc.identifier http://hdl.handle.net/10419/4301
dc.identifier ppn:568784626
dc.identifier.uri http://koha.mediu.edu.my:8181/xmlui/handle/10419/4301
dc.description This paper develops a methodology for estimating the parameters of dynamic opinion or expectation formation processes with social interactions. We study a simple stochastic framework of a collective process of opinion formation by a group of agents who face a binary decision problem. The aggregate dynamics of the individuals' decisions can be analyzed via the stochastic process governing the ensemble average of choices. Numerical approximations to the transient density for this ensemble average allow the evaluation of the likelihood function on the base of discrete observations of the social dynamics. This approach can be used to estimate the parameters of the opinion formation process from aggregate data on its average realization. Our application to a well-known business climate index provides strong indication of social interaction as an important element in respondents' assessment of the business climate.
dc.language eng
dc.publisher Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Kiel
dc.relation Kieler Arbeitspapiere 1424
dc.rights http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen
dc.subject D84
dc.subject C42
dc.subject E37
dc.subject C42
dc.subject ddc:330
dc.subject Business climate
dc.subject Business cycle forecasts
dc.subject Opinion formation
dc.subject Social interactions
dc.subject Erwartungstheorie
dc.subject Meinung
dc.subject Soziale Beziehungen
dc.subject Geschäftsklima
dc.subject Konjunkturumfrage
dc.subject Theorie
dc.subject Deutschland
dc.title Rational forecasts or social opinion dynamics? Identification of interaction effects in a business climate survey
dc.type doc-type:workingPaper


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